Although the full story- of the national recession hasn't yet played out, one theme endures: Missoula - and the Rocky Mountain West - continue to be among the best places to live and work during this economic tumult.

Skeptics may dismiss such pronouncements as cheerleading, yet national statistics - everything from the U.S. Census Bureau to data collected by state agencies - prove the point, said Larry Swanson, an economist and director of the O'Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West.

At a Tuesday economic forum in Missoula, Swanson talked about the city's enviable position and shared his research with an audience of 400-some community leaders, business owners, working professionals, retirees and concerned citizens.

He pointed to statistics that show our foreclosure rates and unemployment rates are among the lowest in the nation, and he discussed why emerging population trends indicate Missoula's economy will continue to thrive and grow.

Yet to capitalize on this promising future, community leaders need to pull together and talk about the consequences that come with a growing population, Swanson said.

Then there's the fact that we are no longer just an "urban center." We are a city. Recognizing ourselves as such is a significant paradigm shift, much like the one economists and many Montanans experienced not so long ago.

"Most of the 1990s, we thought the economy was declining," Swanson said, "but it wasn't. It was changing."

Jobs in the natural resource industry declined; yet as the vanguard economy struggled, Missoula's income levels per household climbed, employment grew and unemployment dropped.

Why? According to Swanson, new business sectors emerged in the form of professional services, such as accountants and financial advisers. Adding to this new economic scenario, Missoula's health care services continued to expand, creating a need for more support services and education in the health fields.

Furthermore, technology has dramatically replaced the old-school work force formula, Swanson said. People aren't following jobs, jobs are coming with people.

"We have moved to a more footloose economy," he said, "and because of this, there is a reorganization pattern of migration."


View a PowerPoint presentation from the Missoula spring economic forum

What it all adds up to is this: Despite a grim outlook elsewhere in the country, economic expansion is happening in small- and mid-size cities in nice areas that have a lot of outdoor recreation opportunities, in places like Missoula and Boise, Idaho.

Land and houses in these small places are holding their value because they are connected to the natural amenities of the area.

"So much value is placed on open spaces by the people who live here, and that's helping to increase the value of people's homes," Swanson said. "Cities not tied into these amenities are not growing."

Baby boomers are powering this expansion in Montana's largest urban areas - Missoula, Bozeman, Kalispell, Great Falls, Billings - and statistically, Montana is getting older faster.

Such data present our region with several challenges. Fewer young people means fewer students in our education system and a declining work force.

Locally, the challenge lies in making Missoula more attractive and livable for people of all ages.

Missoula has one of the highest poverty rates in the state, one of the lowest median incomes, and yet its residents are among the most educated.

"It doesn't make any sense," Swanson said. "We are slipping and it proves we have plenty of room for economic improvement."

Missoula is at an interesting juncture, Swanson said. To thrive, local leaders need to devise a "subregional strategy" that will help guide the community through the coming, census-driven data that show Missoula is only going to get bigger, more people will call this place home, and the city is quickly becoming the largest business center between Spokane and Billings.

"We have to establish an economic roundtable," Swanson said. "We need a group of people who regularly meet, and we need key leadership that is on top of this."

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