Despite the economy-thumping recession and its ripple effects, the fiscal storm won’t likely mess with the projected 2010 job forecast.

Trends are driven by needs and even a recession can’t derail demands for things we need to make our daily life function, said Jacqueline Michael-Midkiff, a regional economist with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics who oversees the Mountain-Plains Region.

Because of that, the many projections experts have compiled that show where the jobs are in 2010 and beyond aren’t expected to change.

Some of those lists and trends are on the following pages of this publication, along with a Q & A interview with Michael-Midkiff, who talks about how Montana fits into the greater employment picture.

But what will we see locally? The answer, economists say, is what we will see nationally.

Expect slower population growth, a decreasing labor force, and a continuing shift from a goods-producing economy to a service-producing economy, according to recently released data from the labor bureau’s 2008-2018 employment projections.

The largest areas for job growth and opportunity will be found in the employment sectors described as professional and business services, including management, scientific and technical consulting, computer systems design and employment services.

Over half of all new jobs in the U.S. economy – over 8 million jobs – will spring from professional and business services and health care services combined.

Of the 10 industries projected to have the largest declines, four are in manufacturing.

For anyone skeptical about this government-collected and -assembled data (all of which can be found at www.bls.gov), keep in mind the recent announcement of Macy’s closure in downtown Missoula and take note.

Where do the government prognosticators believe the single largest decline in jobs will be found? In department stores.

Among the biggest trends driving the job market: aging baby boomers – the largest demographic group in the U.S. – and the needs they will have as they grow older, better medicine and the spin-off support services that innovation will demand, as well as rapid technology growth and the numerous opportunities that will evolve from the rapid advances of ideas and services.

WorldWideLearn, an online directory of education, is banking on these trends and is promoting training programs around the top 10 jobs the directory service believes will be most in demand for this new decade.

Here’s its list: 1. Computer Programmer; 2. Day Care Provider; 3. Elder Care Specialist; 4. Employment Specialist; 5. Environmental Engineer; 6. Home Health Aide; 7. Management Consultant; 8. Networking Specialist; 9. Physician Assistant; 10. Social Services Coordinator.

Reader’s Digest magazine recently collaborated with the Hudson Institute, which is a think tank that analyzes workforce trends, and identified five fields that will offer growth in the near future: health care, technology, security, financial services and knowledge.

Among the many areas, Reader’s Digest offered some specifics areas where job opportunities will be most promising: surgical technologist, health care administrator, registered nurse, computer troubleshooter, (telecommunications) equipment product manager, video-game developer, security equipment installer, quality assurance manager, claims adjuster, financial advisor, financial analyst, medical records technician, and technical writer.

The future, as envisioned in the labor bureau data, supports what economists predict locally.

“Where the job growth is projected to occur nationwide is also where Missoula’s job growth and economic restructuring has been concentrated the last 10 to 15 years,” said Larry Swanson, director of the O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West.

“Our future is not in manufacturing and wood products, although there will be some of this,” Swanson said. “Our future is in health care – which will continue to be one of the fastest-growing areas of the U.S. economy – professional and technical services, plus business and financial services.”

This year and in coming years, employment will grow in the fields of engineering, architecture, geological services, financial planning, accounting, actuary, research, home health care providers and services tied to elder care, Swanson said.

Job expansion will also be tied to the University of Montana, where research and graduate programs will likely expand roughly three to four times over the next seven years.

Missoula has a lot to look forward to, Swanson said, but it would do well to be aggressive in seeking success and opportunity.

“Missoula needs to become more intentional about where it wants to go economically to really assure our future prosperity,” he said. “We are now largely riding growth – not investing and planning for how we want it to occur.”