The National Retail Federation is projecting a 1% decline in holiday retail sales nationwide this year.

A national consulting firm says that projection, combined with last year's 3% drop, means the American retail industry will suffer through back-to-back holiday sales declines for the first time in 40 years.

The prediction has left some Missoula businesses a little anxious, but they are also determined to try to buck the national trend.        

Aimee McQuilkin owns Betty's Divine, a fashion boutique in downtown Missoula, and says her business is not completely dependent on Christmas sales, but does realize the importance of the season by offering a wider array of merchandise.

"We have a lot of higher end stuff from small designers and I still have that but not in as much volume as in the past. We're focusing on less expensive, smaller items, but we'll still go for it because we need selection or people will go elsewhere."

Business boomed around town, and around the country, until a financial crisis triggered by poor lending practices, a stagnate housing market, and rising food and oil prices slowed spending in late 2008--an attitude that still continues.

"The consumer confidence is pretty low" commented Webb Brown, the CEO of the Montana Chamber of Commerce. "That needs to come back before we see a real robust shopping season."

"I think you'll see a little better than last year. We're not scared out of our minds like last year with the bank bailout" added Larry Swanson with the Center for the Rocky Mountain West: 

The online comparison shopping site PriceGrabber.com reports that 53% of consumers expect to spend less on holiday shopping this year than last year, when 71% spent less than the year before.

It also indicates that most consumers will spend less than $1,000 on holiday shopping, with the largest segment of consumers, 36%, planning to spend $100 to $499. Some 28% plan to spend between $500 and $999, 30% spending more than $1,000 and just 6% spending less than $99.

The site also reports 70% of shoppers plan to save money by doing research and comparison shopping online, while 50% plan to shop at discount or outlet stores.

Missoula shoppers are still shopping, but their approach to the holiday season will differ as much as they do.

I'm pretty frugal" said Julie Steckler. "I'm dong all gift cards except the teenage son who gets ski wear."

"Around the holidays, families need help so we decided we'll do that--give it to someone who needs it more" added Diane Krutar.

Meanwhile, McQuilkin says most of the business owners she knows continue to see a down-turn in business, not "make or break" but still down. But, she says that won't stop her from offering the best selection she can to try to attract holiday shoppers.

"What we've seen over this year, I'm playing it cautious but I also feel you need to have the merchandise available for people to guy so I'm still stocking my store."

McQuilkin added that most of her Christmas business doesn't occur until the middle of December, so she's hoping the late-season rush will help improve her bottom line.