Fast Growth in the Rockies Projected to Slow in Future Years

During the last decade, the Rocky Mountain West became one of the nation’s fastest-growing regions. However, under current U.S. Census Bureau population projections (March, 2005), this growth will gradually slow, with this slowing growth largely tied to population aging. Colorado, which grew by 31% in the ‘90s, is projected to grow by 12% during the current decade, followed by 9% in the decade after that. Idaho, which grew by 28% in the ‘90s, is projected to grow by 17% and 15% in the subsequent two decades. Montana’s growth is projected to fall from 13% in the ‘90s to 7% and 6% in each of the next two decades and to fall to as low as 2% growth between 2020 and 2030. Wyoming’s population growth, less than all of the other states, is projected to fall into negative territory in this latter decade.
The chart below shows the percent of the population in each of the five Rocky Mountain West states that was 65 and older in 2000 and as projected for 2010 and 2030 under the Census Bureau’s current projections. Wyoming and Montana will have two of the four oldest populations among U.S. states. Only Arizona and Florida are projected to have older populations. The 65 and older population in Montana will rise from 13.4% of the total in 2000 to almost 26% by 2030 – virtually doubling in size as a proportion of the population. In Wyoming this senior population will more than double in proportion, rising from less than 12% of the total in 2000 to over 26% in 2030. The 65 and older population as a share of the total will rise in all of the Rocky Mountain states, as is occurring nationally. And with older populations, birth rates will fall as death rates rise, tempering population growth throughout the country.
A fairly rapidly aging population is one of the greatest challenges the region will face, as labor force growth is increasingly constrained, health care needs continue to rise, housing needs change, and school-age population are altered. The single most important thing many communities in the region can do in anticipating and planning for their future is to better comprehend the dynamics of their own population aging and change.

 

Source: Larry Swanson, O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West, U. of Montana