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Blue-Staters Run Through It

BOZEMAN, Mont. -- Jim Walseth moved from Seattle to this well-heeled, high-altitude city 12 years ago to design software and live the "Bozeman lifestyle" -- commuting to work on a bicycle or cross-country skis and backpacking in Yellowstone National Park on weekends.

Now, Mr. Walseth and the tens of thousands of knowledge workers who arrived after him are reshaping the way this state looks, acts -- and votes. Along the way, these new Montanans have sparked a testy culture clash and, for the first time in a generation, opened the door for a Democrat presidential nominee to win the state in November.

While Montana's three electoral votes are hardly going to swing the election, the patterns here are taking root across the interior U.S. West, including in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

Only two Democrats have carried Montana since 1948. Bill Clinton's 1992 victory was made possible only because Ross Perot split the state's Republican vote. In 2004, George Bush won the state by 20 points.

As late as this spring, the electorate seemed headed in the same direction. A pair of statewide polls showed that Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, held a comfortable lead over Sen. Barack Obama. But after four visits by Sen. Obama, an aggressive media campaign and some well-organized ground work, the Illinois Democrat now leads by five points, according to a July 1 Rasmussen poll. The campaign says it is opening six offices in the state this month.

The reason for his surge lies in part with the migration of Democrat-leaning, college-educated transplants like Mr. Walseth and his wife, Elizabeth Darrow. As the rural Republican eastern plains lose population and political influence, thousands of blue-staters who began arriving here in the 1990s are reaching a critical mass. The effect is that Bozeman and several other larger towns in western Montana have become political battlegrounds.

"It's a much different place from the Montana I found when I first arrived," says Mr. Walseth, a boyish 50-year-old who favors T-shirts over ties and says he plans to vote for Sen. Obama.

Gene Fields, a 72-year-old retired cowboy who favors 10-gallon hats and Sen. McCain, says, "People come here and they want it to be like where they came from. I say, why don't they stay there? The bad thing is, now they've got you outnumbered, you put an issue to a vote and they'll outvote you."

In the past two decades about 200,000 people -- mostly Westerners in their 40s and 50s -- have moved to Montana, while about 100,000 people have left, estimates Larry Swanson, director of the O'Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West at the University of Montana. The state's population is now about 950,000.

Since 2000, over 80% of the state's population growth and 90% of personal income growth has taken place in a handful of urbanizing western counties and those nearby. The result is "a transitioning culture," Mr. Swanson says. "That's putting the politics in play."

Republican National Committee spokesman Alex Conant says he believes Montanans will return to the GOP "when Sen. Obama's record on taxes and guns is better known." He attributes the recent poll to Sen. Obama's push in May, when he was trying to avoid ending the primary season with losses in South Dakota and Montana.

In Bozeman, population 37,981, locals boil the changes down to old Montana vs. new.

In the old Montana, the path to electoral success lay in being pro-business, pro-gun and anti-environmentalism. The new Montana is more apt to value conservation and education.

A careful melding of the two ways of thinking -- packaged with a dash of folksy charm -- has helped elect a raft of moderate Democrats, including Gov. Brian Schweitzer, who selected a Republican to be his lieutenant governor, and the state's two senators, Max Baucus and Jon Tester.

At a 4-H meeting July 10 in Bozeman, Gov. Schweitzer climbed on the stage in jeans and a bolo tie with his black-and-white border collie, Jake, at his side. After speaking, he said in an interview that a typical new Montanan might be an engineer in his mid-40s with an advanced degree, a $250,000 annual salary, a wife and three kids. He came because he likes the schools and he's never more than 15 minutes from a fishing hole, the governor said.

Mr. Schweitzer filled out the portrait, saying the new Montanan might be a Republican in name "but he says, 'These Democrats, they act like the Republicans did in California and the East and West Coast. I don't even know who these troglodytes are who call themselves Republicans.'"

Gun issues will be a challenge for Sen. Obama. The National Rifle Association in 2004 gave him a voting grade of "F." NRA spokesman Andrew Arulanandam says the senator's positions were "too radical, they lack common sense."

The NRA awarded Sen. McCain a C-plus in 2004. Mr. Arulanandam says, "Mr. McCain has a solid pro-gun record."

At times, downtown Bozeman feels like it's inhabited by two different tribes. Main Street is lined with Audis and Subarus topped with mountain bikes and kayaks. Half an hour out of town, the polish on cowboy boots gives way to scuffs, and gun racks outnumber roof racks.

Two Main Street restaurants cater to the contrasting cultures. Inside the 50-year-old Western Cafe, a beef roast with mashed potatoes costs $6.50. Tables are topped with cracked linoleum and walls are lined with branding-iron designations from local ranches. Coffee isn't on the menu "because everyone knows it's $1.25," says waitress Rachelle Wymer.

Two blocks west, in the three-year-old Homepage Cafe, a Hawaiian coffee runs $3.50 and a panini with Spanish Serrano ham and manchego cheese goes for $9.95. The asking price for the African paintings on the walls tops out at $500.

"They're trying to turn this place into another Aspen," complained Carol Graybill, 66 years old, a local truck-stop owner and Montana native who was getting a $10 haircut next to the Western Cafe. "There's so much more money in this town now."

Old-line Bozemanites have been cashing in by selling their homes and moving out of town to escape escalating local taxes. Some have bought land in Manhattan, Mont., population 1,500, about 20 miles west along Interstate 90.

Despite Sen. Obama's lead in recent polls, Mr. Walseth, the software engineer, is skeptical about his chances. Remembering John Kerry yard signs being ripped out of lawns in 2004, he says, "I'd be pretty amazed if Obama wins here this year. Ten years from now, that I can see."

Write to Douglas Belkin at doug.belkin@wsj.com

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