He said downturns in construction, real estate and resource extraction industries have hurt the county’s traditional economic base, but he pointed out that local foreclosure and unemployment rates are still among the lowest in the nation.

He said the Bitterroot is rightly diversifying toward a “footloose” service-oriented economy with more professional jobs in technology, accounting, law, engineering, architecture, computers, financial advising, health care and other white-collar fields.

“That’s where the good growth is,” he said.

With Ravalli County showing slight improvements in its unemployment rate, income levels and young adult population, the valley is well positioned to recover and take advantage of growth and change, Swanson said.

“By August and September, we’ll largely feel we’re getting to the other side of this,” he told community, business, government and nonprofit representatives at the forum.

Swanson presented statistical research that showed the Bitterroot’s situation mirrors many communities in the Rocky Mountain West, which has suffered less in the recession than other regions.

He said the dot.com-based recession in 2001 and 2002 didn’t affect Ravalli County, but the current housing and banking downturn has caused local pain because the county has depended on construction and real estate sales.

He encouraged Ravalli’s decision-makers not to blame themselves for the local economy’s woes, saying outside markets, technologies and other “far away and often invisible forces” were at play.

“The Bitterroot Valley didn’t cause its slowdown,” he said. “It was national ripples” that originated in the housing market decline, the subprime mortgage crisis and other issues.

Western Montana enjoyed a long, uninterrupted economic surge since the early 1990s, giving Ravalli County an unemployment rate of just 2.9 percent in 2007 as home and commercial construction and real estate sales thrived.

But since the nation’s recession started in December 2007, the county’s unemployment rate has risen to 9.8 percent as of February.

Swanson said that figure started to decline in March, indicating the unemployment rate will follow its usual trend of dropping to its lowest stage in August and September.

He predicted the county’s unemployment rate would be below 7 percent by then and continue to fall.

“So, the precipitous rise in area unemployment appears to now be ebbing and the unemployment rate should gradually decline,” he said.

Swanson said it will take the United States another year to recover from the recession.

He said western Montana is in an enviable position, but that its economy is growing faster than its ability to supply an adequate workforce.

He recommended that local communities and employers step up efforts to educate and train their workers for jobs in professional and technical services.

“Beyond the current economic slowdown, there’s a need to take stock of where the area economy stands, where it’s come from and where it may be going,” he said.

Swanson predicted Ravalli County’s population growth will pick up because it offers a good quality of life, including plenty of open public lands and recreational opportunities that will draw more people from California and other regions whose economies continue to lag.

Julie Foster, executive director of the Ravalli County Economic Development Authority, said the proposed Ravalli Entrepreneurship Center typifies the local effort to strengthen the economy while preserving quality of life.

Construction of the 10,000-square-foot facility is underway and slated for completion in October.

The $3.2 million project along Old Corvallis Road is designed as a business incubator, which Foster described as “E-cubed under one roof” n employment, education and economic development. Foster said the center also fits with the community’s effort to nurture a range of local entrepreneurs rather than recruiting large outside companies.

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Reporter John Cramer can be reached at 363-3300 or jcramer@ravallirepublic.com.