Speaker say communities must act to reverse population decrease

BY JOE DUGGAN / Lincoln Journal Star

The trends look depressing for rural Nebraska.

The trends say nearly half of the state’s counties are hemorrhaging their most important resource — people.

Larry Swanson, a regional economist from the University of Montana, says an opportunity to reverse the trends exists in some small-population counties. But they must act soon.

“To be honest with you, we don’t have forever to figure this out,” Swanson said this week from his office at the O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West. “The thing that’s creating the urgency is the aging of the population. Most of these counties have death rates higher than birth rates.”

Swanson will give a talk titled “Can the Path Be Altered? Salvaging and Renewing Communities of the Rural Plains” at 3:30 p.m. Thursday at the Great Plains Art Museum, 1155 Q St. The talk is open to the public.

Swanson directs a regional study center in Missoula, Mont., and he has strong ties to Nebraska. He grew up in Edgar, earned a doctorate in economics from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and once worked for the Center for Great Plains Studies at UNL.

Throughout his career, Swanson has grappled with issues related to rural population loss. He expressed frustration about the lack of progress.

“We did a lot of hand-wringing and we got sore hands, but we didn’t get many solutions,” he said.

Population losses occurred over decades in rural areas of central and northern plains states, but the declines accelerated in the 1980s. The acceleration was attributed to the farm crisis, in which many family farmers lost their property.

The 1990s saw the loss trends slow or even reverse in some rural areas. Swanson said he has compiled population data on the Great Plains since 2000, and he will share it at his talk.

It won’t paint a bucolic scene.

In Nebraska, for example, it shows 42 rural counties are caught in a depopulation trend. In 2000, 14 of every 100 Nebraskans lived in those counties. As of 2005, the numbers dropped to 10 out of every 100, according to Swanson’s analysis of U.S. Census data and population estimates.

Swanson’s work at the University of Montana has also allowed him to study population growth in small towns in the “interior West,” places like Durango, Colo., and Bozeman, Mont.

In part, such growth stems from the fact that large shifts in the economy and advances in communication technology have made it possible for people to live where they want and for companies to go where they want.

But the growth of interior West communities also has created two not so desirable trends — high housing costs and lower wages because employers have an oversupply of workers who want to live in such towns. Young people who want to earn more and find affordable homes may be looking for other options in greater numbers, Swanson said.

Why can’t some communities in Nebraska compete for such newcomers? Swanson said they can.

To compete for new residents and new companies, communities need to offer up-to-date communication infrastructure, an adequate workforce and what Swanson called “a few amenities.” Mountains are the draw in Colorado, Wyoming and Montana, but lakes, rivers, wildlife refuges, prairies and other natural attributes in Nebraska could also be amenities.

Swanson said his analysis shows that rural counties near four cities of Nebraska — Norfolk, Grand Island, North Platte and Scottsbluff — have the greatest potential in attracting newcomers.

At the talk, he’ll explain why.

The lead sponsor of Swanson’s presentation is the Grassland Foundation. Tyler Sutton, president of the foundation, said Swanson’s ideas tie in with the organization’s mission of pairing grassland conservation with building sustainable communities.

Reach Joe Duggan at 473-7239 or jduggan@journalstar.com.