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Thursday, January 12 2006 |
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State's aging
population brings in big federal bucks
There's no shortage of pinochle partners when
Robert Schurr comes to the Missoula Senior Citizens Center for a
game on Thursday afternoons.
Across the card table, 82-year-old Thelma Maun had a few ideas. Better lighting on Mullan Road was one. And better wages for her children who also live in Montana. But she also found Missoula much friendlier than her previous home in Texas, and added its medical services served older people well. Those ideas are likely to rise on the priority list as Montana continues its change as one of the oldest populations in the nation. Between 2000 and 2020, the slice of Montanans over 65 is expected to grow from 13.4 percent to 20.7 percent. That will move the state from fifth place to third for proportion of senior citizens. Of the $9.4 billion in tax dollars sent to Montana in fiscal 2004, $2.9 billion came in through the mailbox as retirement and disability payments to individuals. In contrast, $886 million was earned as paychecks by federal employees. According to data compiled in the annual Consolidated Federal Funds Report, Montana's federal employees in agencies such as the Forest Service or military have seen a 16 percent wage increase between 1994 and 2004 (adjusted for inflation). In the same period, retirement and disability payments to individuals have jumped 26 percent. “And it's not the individual checks, but the number of checks going out,” said Susan Kohler, director of Missoula Aging Services. “The amount of people's Social Security checks has only been going up in COLAs (cost of living adjustment). It's the number of older people coming to the state.” In Missoula County, Social Security paid out $88.6 million in fiscal 2004 - the largest single category in the county's $628 million federal allocation. Combined, the total of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other retirement income payments in Missoula County was $267 million. That doesn't count income assistance programs such as food stamps ($7.3 million) or Temporary Assistance for Needy Families ($4.8 million). The U.S. Department of Agriculture, which includes the Forest Service, had the largest Missoula-area payroll at $51.8 million. “We're going to be one of the oldest states in the nation by 2020 or 2025, by current trends,” said Center for the Rocky Mountain West director Larry Swanson. “That means we're going to be one of those states where retaining and attracting young adults is essential for our economic health.” Swanson said many parts of Montana, such as the Bitterroot Valley, have reached a ��-50 economy.” That's where half the income comes from employee paychecks, and half comes from a combination of investment income and government transfer payments. That half of the population that gets its money in the mailbox tends to be less rooted than those who report to an office or mill, Swanson said. Montanans should consider several things as they adapt to this demographic change. “Are we going to become a retirement haven?” Swanson asked. “We're going to find out in a hurry. These (older) people drift in, and if they drift back out, the income they have will be spent somewhere else. That makes the quality of life here for 60- and 70- and 80-year-olds very important.” Those changes may show up in both work and leisure arenas. Kohler predicted an increase in the number of restaurants providing penlights to read menus and hotels with automatic doors as the baby boomers reach retirement. But she added that businesses may try to retain some of those potential retirees. “You'll see more flexible schedules,” Kohler said. “Those were formerly geared for women raising dependent children in the work force. But businesses are afraid their history and experience will disappear if baby boomers go out the door. Those people are not going to want to work 40 hours a week. They're going to want some kind of flexible schedule.” Nationally, the aging population and its financial needs may force some big changes in federal spending, Swanson said. Locally, it may also reshape Missoula's growth pattern. “These demographic trends drive where the economy goes, but they also create opportunities,” Swanson said. “We're in a golden opportunity time. We've moved into an economy that really likes small cities. People want to come and live in these-sized (Montana) cities. And as more people move out of the work force, that creates opportunities on the backside for younger people moving into the work force. “We keep thinking you have to make a sacrifice to work here, that we have to hire our kid or our kid's friend because we can't afford to hire someone new from out of state. We have to get away from that.” Reporter Rob Chaney can be reached at 523-5382 or at rchaney@missoulian.com
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