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Thursday, February 01 2007 |
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By TYLER CHRISTENSEN of the
Missoulian Montana currently has an “unheard of” 2.8 percent unemployment rate, and the tight labor market is only going to get tighter, said Eldredge, chief economist for the Montana Department of Labor and Industry's Research and Analysis Bureau. He was joined Thursday afternoon by Larry Swanson, director of the University of Montana's O'Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West, who agreed local employers need to take action now to stave off the challenges associated with an aging population. In Montana, about 14 percent of the population is 65 or older. In fact, Montana has the fourth-highest percentage of residents aged 65 and older in the nation, more than some “traditional” retirement states, such as Florida, which holds fifth place. What's more, Montana's 65-and-older population is projected to double by 2027, while the 65-and-under population shrinks nearly 3 percent. Said Eldredge, “Get ready for a lot of retirees in the next 10 years.” Montana's labor force has grown every year for as long as it's been tracked, he said. However, that will no longer be the case by 2013, when the labor force will decrease for the first time. Unless businesses somehow increase productivity to compensate, the state's economy could take a dive, Eldredge said. “We're going to face a situation where our population will continue to grow, but we're going to have less people to produce the services and goods they'll need,” he said. The good news is, the market has ways of adjusting. If, for instance, wages in Montana were to increase, the state might attract more workers from elsewhere. If employers invested in certain tools, such as computers and more efficient machinery, their per-worker productivity rate would rise. Eldredge also cited an American Association of Retired Persons study that found 45 percent of the nation's 55-and-older population expects to continue working into their 70s. Employers might retain those workers if they make some changes, he said. In addition to increased pay, they might offer health insurance, flexible hours and other incentives. The point is, employers need to do something, and they need to do it soon. “Anything is better than nothing,” Eldredge said. “In Montana, we might have to get creative and figure out how we're going to keep more baby boomers in the work force, or how we're going to attract more workers.” Employers could develop mentoring programs and start working with educational institutions to develop curricula that fit their specific needs, he said. They could also poll their employees to find out what they like about their jobs and use that information to increase job satisfaction - a proven retention tool. They should also work to overcome negative stereotypes about older workers. Some might believe that older workers are slower learners, but that's just not supported by the data, he said. Things can also be done on a broader scale, he said. It would help to tweak policy so that retirement age and life expectancy were more closely matched. It might also help if immigration were easier, because other countries have worker surpluses. Montana's economy is changing, and it's important for employers - and others - to recognize those changes so they can adapt, Swanson said. Increasingly, the state is moving away from an economy rooted in natural resources and toward one based on a growing human-resource economy. In a human-resource economy, Swanson said, effective education is essential. Work force training needs to reflect the fact that employment growth is no longer centered around a couple of large employers, he said. More and more, it's spread among thousands of small businesses. Missoula should consider sponsoring a “cluster study” of the area to identify employment clusters according to their common needs. That would allow community leaders to design education strategies specific to employers' requirements. Swanson also advocated regular meetings involving representatives from every sector of Missoula, from education to infrastructure. Those meetings would promote information sharing and encourage more cohesive planning, he said. Thursday's seminar was organized by the Missoula Job Service Employers' Council, which regularly sponsors events on a variety of topics aimed at helping local employers. In recent months, it has been paying particular attention to the work force issue because local employers are feeling the pinch from Missoula's rock-bottom 2.6 percent unemployment rate, said Deborah Gass, who helped organize the seminar. Reporter Tyler Christensen can be reached at 523-5215 or at tyler.christensen@lee.net MCPS, city property partnership proposed By ROB CHANEY of the Missoulian The Homevale property is an odd island of grass in a sea of asphalt just east of Missoula's Brooks-South-Russell intersection. It may grow into a novel experiment in school-city partnership. Missoula County Public Schools owns the land, which sits across from its South Avenue Business Building and the University of Montana College of Technology. On Thursday, Mayor John Engen proposed using it to solve some of the city's housing crunch. “It could be used as a teacher-recruitment tool, a first-time homebuyer project or some other kind of income-qualified housing,” Engen said at the MCPS property committee session. “It's centrally located, close to services and a good transportation corridor. It makes sense for all of us to figure out some kind of housing development there.” MCPS has been trying to decide what to do with some of its properties that no longer serve as potential school locations. The Homevale property once had a future as part of the city's vocational-technical education services, but diverging paths of UM and the school district have left it in limbo. Trustees have pondered building additional administrative offices there, or selling it for commercial development. Matters got complicated three years ago when the city bought an easement through the land and built part of its South Avenue diversion through it, splitting the parcel in two. School districts in other parts of the nation have gone into the residential construction business to help rookie teachers find housing in expensive communities. Missoula's education leaders have talked about trying that here, although without any concrete plans. Engen suggested the city might be interested in building it, but more likely would work through a partnership with MCPS and UM. “Today I don't have any money to buy it,” Engen said. “We just want to explore it.” Figuring out property challenges is a growing focus for MCPS. Superintendent Jim Clark told the committee he may float some proposals for major changes in school use as early as February. They include an idea to rebuild Lowell Elementary School to include a kind of community center, with offices for counselors and health workers, meeting rooms and perhaps a second gym. Another pressure point is the advent of all-day kindergarten. Gary Botchek, MCPS director of operations and maintenance, updated the committee on how many school buildings are ready to handle the new program and which ones would need additional space. Even assuming some extra programs like family resource centers and counselors' offices might get moved or shrunk, Missoula would still need five new classrooms at Franklin, Chief Charlo and Lewis and Clark elementary schools. That could cost between $650,000 and $1 million, depending on how permanent the new buildings are constructed. Botchek added those estimates could be low, as construction material prices continue to increase. However, future construction needs could change that picture too. Hawthorne Elementary on the city's western edge may see a jump in enrollment as several new subdivisions begin filling up. And Russell Elementary has the potential to expand, which could allow the district to eliminate aging Cold Springs Elementary and build a modern building in the growing Maloney Ranch area on the city's southern corner. Clark stressed all those decisions would have to go through lots of trustee and community review before any ground is broken or sold. Reporter Rob Chaney can be reached at 523-5382 or at rchaney@missoulian.com Add Your Own Comments >>
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