While a number of Montana cities are participants in an economic
boom in the West, Great Falls continues to tread water in a region
seeing little growth, economist Larry Swanson said Tuesday.
Speaking to about 200 folks at an annual economic summit,
Swanson, the director of the Center for the Rocky Mountain West in
Missoula, said the Electric City also may be poised to take part in
the boom in coming years.
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“Great Falls is a relatively
high-quality city in a slow-growth region and it has to deal with
that proposition,” Swanson told the gathering at the University of
Great Falls theater.
Advances in information technology, growth in a service economy
that includes good-paying jobs in healthcare, business and legal
services and an older, mobile population are forces shaping the
economy of small cities.
“The emerging economy really likes small cities,” Swanson said.
“We can expect some of the small cities we have, including Great
Falls, to plug into the kind of expansion we have going on in the
economy.”
Swanson says Montana’s economy is being driven by conditions in
its seven largest cities. Of the estimated growth of about 25,000
people in the state since 2000, growth in or near cities accounts
for all but a 1,000 of the new residents.
“These small cities are
becoming the engines of economic expansion in Montana,” the
economist said.
The growth spots are obvious: Bozeman, Kalispell and the
Flathead, Missoula, Billings and Helena, where growth has
accelerated in recent years.
“Butte is having difficulty repositioning itself” and seeing
little growth, Swanson said. “Great Falls is also having difficulty
with that.”
Parts of northcentral Montana, like much of eastern Montana, are
suffering from population loss, caused in part by out-migration and
also by birth rates trailing death rates. Great Falls is not
benefiting greatly from being a trade center because of the regional
population loss.
“This is a tough situation we are in,” Swanson said, noting Great
Falls is in a transition area between the fast-growing west and
dwindling east.
“You don’t have the population growth propelling
you like some of the other cities,” he said.
But Great Falls and Cascade County are experiencing growth in
incomes and have actually risen to above-average levels when
compared to similar-sized cities in the state and region.
The economist credited Great Falls with having “amazing
resiliency” economically and predicted that growth elsewhere in the
state will eventually spread.
“It’s going to spill into your
area,” he said. “You are not going to be caught in the downward
population spiral that most of the northern Plains area is
in.”
In other segments of the summit, local leaders outlined
growth in several key economic sectors.
Healthcare continues to see significant growth locally, driven by
new facilities and new personnel. John Goodnow, the Benefis
Healthcare chief executive, reported that hospital has added 59 jobs
in 2005 and will pay $81 million in wages and benefits this year, up
significantly from last year. The opening in coming days of the
Sletten Regional Cancer Institute will be followed by a number of
building projects in 2006 and beyond.
The Great Falls Clinic, which opened its $20.5 million medical
specialty center this year, also added 59 jobs, said Greg Hagfors,
its chief administrator. The average pay for the jobs, which
includes a significant number of jobs, is $75,358, he said.
The clinic will undertake a significant remodeling of its main
building in 2006 and will continue to recruit more doctors and
medical professionals, he said.
The construction sector in Great Falls is thriving, driven by
medical and other projects, officials said. In 2006, construction
should continue to be strong, aided by an $11-million expansion at
the MSU-Great Falls College of Technology, a science lab project at
the University of Great Falls and big military projects, said Krista
Smith of the Great Falls Builders Exchange.
Also on tap are retail projects including a new Wal-Mart
Supercenter, a Walgreens store and a new Scheels store at Holiday
Village Mall.
Funding for more than $80 million in projects at Malmstrom Air
Force Base is nearly final, officials reported. The biggest chunk of
money will be used for building new homes on base, while $13 million
could go to a new fitness facility.
There will be plenty of construction work at the Montana Air
National Guard as well. A new flying mission involving F-15 aircraft
will spark about $30 million in construction at facilities on Gore
Hill, reported Capt. Jeff Pepke, a MANG spokesman.
The new flying mission, scheduled to be in operation in 2008,
also is expected to add up to 80 jobs, about 30 of them full-time at
MANG, Pepke noted.
Airline boardings at Great Falls International Airport are up 22
percent so far in 2005, said Cynthia Schultz, the airport director.
“I believe it is the direct result of the economic activity you
have heard about today,” she told the gathering.
New airline service to Denver via United Express, along with
increased cargo activity have also boosted the airport, she noted.
Construction also will be the theme on Gore Hill as the airport
is scheduled to see $34 million in runway and infrastructure
improvements in 2006, she noted.
A new player at the airport could come in the form of a Canadian
aviation maintenance business that is seeking a location in the
United States.
Schultz said the airport and Great Falls Development Authority
are in lease negotiations with the company.
Steve North, the GFDA’s vice president of marketing, pegged the
chances of landing the unnamed company and up to 200 jobs at 75
percent.
Two other “hot-list” prospects, an industrial manufacturing
operation and a medical transcription business, each possibly
employing 100 workers, also have a better than 50 percent chance of
locating in Great Falls, North said.
“We think we are doing a pretty good job of filling up the
pipeline” of potential jobs, North said.
Reach Tribune Business Editor James E. Larcombe at (800) 438-6600
or at blarcomb@greatfal.gannett.com.
greatfallstribune.com
