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Get ready for Billings' future, economist says
If local
leaders hope to steer Billings toward a bright economic future, they can't
wait for a "one size fits all" plan handed down from Helena or Washington,
D.C.The plan has to percolate up from the local level, says Larry Swanson, director of the O'Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West at the University of Montana. Billings must start planning now for the retirement of the baby boomer generation and a potential shortage of trained workers, or the community's decadelong economic expansion could be in jeopardy, Swanson said Friday morning at an economic development seminar sponsored by Celebrate Billings. Swanson focused on recent economic trends and made suggestions for how to develop a community plan for sustained development. Another speaker, SuzAnne Miller of Dunrovin Research in Lolo, discussed the process for developing a community action plan. Swanson said Billings and other midsize Western cities have prospered from a changing economic landscape over the past decade. Many large corporations downsized and decentralized operations. Many "knowledge workers" fled big cities and began telecommuting. The resulting "footloose economy" brought thousands of people to the Rocky Mountain West. "A lot of activity from the large companies was being spread across hundreds of smaller communities, and people moved to places where they wanted to live," Swanson said. Many people had the impression that Montana's economy has been in decline in recent years, and some parts of the state have struggled. But in Billings, key economic measures -- personal income, per capita income and job growth -- have shown significant gains. "From an economic standpoint, the Billings area economy is on much firmer ground than 15 years ago, and this growth is largely continuing," Swanson said. Yellowstone County's population increased from 113,500 to 129,570 between 1990 and 2000. Projections indicate that the county's population will grow to 150,000 by 2015. However, the baby boomers will be leaving the work force. This significant demographic shift will affect everything from housing to health care to the job market, Swanson said. One of the biggest mistakes Billings could make is to "stumble forward" without recognizing and planning for this shift, Swanson said. Missoula has developed no clear strategy for dealing with its own growing pains, he said, adding, "I'm real popular in Missoula." To illustrate his point that development efforts must come from the local level, Swanson showed slides from the "New Day Economic Development Road Map," which Brian Schweitzer's gubernatorial campaign promoted in 2004. They include "Appropriate Natural Resource Development, Energy Development and Agricultural Value-Adding." "These are all just 'pffft,' " Swanson said. Swanson said quality infrastructure -- the total of things like streets, sewers and schools -- is an important component of economic development. "You have to develop a vision for what you want the city to be and put it into place," he said. Work-force development is another component of a healthy economy. Not only do workers need the proper skills, but employers must be willing to pay wages that will attract people in their 20s and 30s to the community, Swanson said. To keep track of trends, Swanson said, Billings must measure its progress against similar-size cities in the West. In her presentation, Miller said the community "visioning" process answers four questions: Where have we been, where are we now, where do we want to go and how do we get there? Economic data can point out characteristics of a good community, she said, but they don't explain how to create a quality city. A community action plan can measure a community's willingness to support and fund actions aimed at improving quality of life. Miller said the survey will help define issues that community leaders believe are important. These can be boiled down to two or three tasks that can be accomplished, she said. Published on Saturday, March 18, 2006. Copyright © The Billings Gazette, a division of Lee Enterprises.  |
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