CODY - Economist Larry Swanson had a simple message
Monday for Park County residents: "The region is growing, and some
communities will be ready to take advantage of it, while others
won't."
Swanson, an economist and director of the Center for
the Rocky Mountain West at the University of Montana, has been
visiting with Park County leaders to discuss a new report called
"Roots of Prosperity."
Commissioned by the Greater
Yellowstone Coalition and sponsored by the Cody Country Chamber of
Commerce and more than a dozen local businesses, Swanson's report
looks at how expected population growth in Park County is likely to
affect the area, and what communities should do to prepare for
it.
Swanson predicts the next 15 years will see the county
following a regional trend of steady growth, driven by new residents
seeking the amenities offered by nearby public lands such as
Yellowstone National Park and the Shoshone National Forest.
Increased pressures on those public resources, as well as
residential and energy development and a shrinking agricultural
base, all have the potential to hurt the area if not managed
properly, Swanson said.
"This amenity-driven growth can be
used for economic development objectives, but we have to realize
that you can kill that golden goose," he said.
"How do we
capitalize on this growth, while at the same time sustaining those
very resources that made this an attractive place to live? It's a
bit of a conundrum," he said.
"These large concentrations of
public lands are the magnet, and that's why we live under the
illusion of wide open spaces. But that's also why, when growth hits,
private land is scarce and the fast growth drives up real estate
values more quickly than you would ever think," he
said.
Swanson said there are no "model communities" with easy
answers to the problem.
While growth has been "phenomenal" in
hot spots around the Rocky Mountain West, "Park County has been
growing more slowly," Swanson said.
"But as property values
in those other areas go up, the growth will spread around and work
its way here, so places like Park County are next," he
said.
Over the last 15 years, the county's population grew at
an annual rate of about 1 percent. But at an expected 2 percent
annual growth rate, the county could see as many as 5,200 new houses
over the next 15 years.
Much of that housing growth is
expected to come in rural areas, said the report. In 1970, the
county had 1,830 rural residences occupying 4,405 acres, but 1999
saw 4,231 rural residences on 51,805 acres, it said.
Seasonal
second homes are also a burgeoning trend in the county, growing at
double the national rate.
Consequently, the construction
industry is a major contributing economic engine, Swanson said, but
one that must be managed for market cycles of boom and bust, as
interest rates and other factors shape housing demand.
Brian
Sybert, Cody representative for the Greater Yellowstone Coalition,
said the group commissioned the report because "we wanted to take a
look at what's affecting the economy and landscape in Park County,
and what is the connection between the two."
"Successful
communities have to adapt to change, because it's coming whether we
like it or not," he said.
Swanson said growth will come from
baby boomers and people in their 40s and 50s who will move to the
region to be close to pristine public lands.
Consequently,
the population in 15 years will be much older than it is now, he
said.
"Wyoming and Montana, which have the same demographics,
will be two of the four oldest states by 2010, right up there with
Florida and Arizona," said Swanson.
"So one of the most
important things this community should do is ask yourself every day,
'What do people in their 20s and 30s need and what are they looking
for in the community?' " he said.
Health care will be another
important issue, Swanson said.
Among the recommendations made
in the report are to encourage conservation of agricultural lands,
including the use of conservation easements, and promoting
development in or near towns and infrastructure.
Encouraging
recreational use of public lands is another key strategy, said the
report, as well as developing spring, fall and winter tourism
activities, particularly around non-disruptive, wildlife-related
activities.
Park County Commissioner Marie Fontaine said the
report and Swanson's discussion offered "a lot of really good
information, and a lot of things to think about."
"It
verified what we have all known," she said, and outlined the
challenge of developing effective methods of managing
growth.
Swanson will speak today to the Cody Economic
Development Council at noon at the Holiday Inn in Cody.
For
more information, contact Brian Sybert of the Greater Yellowstone
Coalition at 307-527-6233. To download a copy of the report, visit
http://www.greateryellowstone.org/.
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Booneyrat wrote on December 05, 2006 9:59 AM All this growth is really pleasing the
Real Estaters and Banks. Problem is these greedy people in the
Banking and Real Estate business have walked away from the lower
income working type people in Park County, the very people who
helped to sustain the local business,s during the post boom era of
the 1980,s. Talk about being stabbed in the back.I have really
noticed that most of the car dealers and other business,s have been
catering to these rich transplants. I guess we little people can go
crawl in a cave somewhere and just let the rich biggots have it all,
because that is exactly what they are doing by driving up rents and
real estate prices.
Tundra Rebellion wrote on December 05, 2006 8:09 PM A service based economy is in actuality -
a economy made up of servants. This is a trend that exists
nationwide and is running what was once a vibrant, industrial
economy to nothing more than an off-shored memory. A day of
reckoning is coming for America, however. The bill will have to be
paid and eventually all imbalances must be redressed.....at the
peril of rich and poor alike.
26,410 - Park
County residents in 2004
15.4 - percent of
county land privately owned
97 - percent of
private land used for agriculture
34 - percent
growth in seasonal homes, 1990-2000
1 - percent
annual population growth over past 15 years
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