Holding presidential primaries on the same day in Intermountain
West states might draw more interest from candidates and for the
region's issues, but it probably wouldn't increase voter
participation in the contests very much.
Those issues will be among the topics discussed today at a
Western States Presidential Primary Symposium in Salt Lake City.
Speakers include Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. and New Mexico Gov. Bill
Richardson, both proponents of a regional western primary.
The idea calls for eight western states -- Utah, Nevada, Arizona,
New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana and Idaho -- to hold
simultaneous votes on presidential candidates early in the selection
process.
Utah, New Mexico and Arizona have already signed on for contests
in early February 2008. Nevada's Democratic nominating caucus,
meanwhile, has been moved up to January, between the Iowa caucus and
the New Hampshire primary.
Support exists for the idea in other states, but there are
concerns about the additional cost of holding a separate
presidential primary. The cost in Utah was estimated at
$850,000.
"Presidential candidates have for the last few years tended to
overlook the West" because of the region's GOP tilt and sparse
population, said Daniel Kemmis, a senior fellow at the Center for
the Rocky Mountain West in Missoula, Mont.
But western communities are among the nation's fastest-growing
and Democrats have made gains, he said -- and "we've now had two
successive presidential elections that were close enough in the
electoral college that taking any region for granted is a risky
business."
There's something in it for Western voters, too, said Kelly
Patterson, a political science professor at Brigham Young
University.
"At the heart of this is the idea that candidates will be
receptive to the constituencies that elect them," he said. But the
field of candidates is often winnowed by early votes on the East
Coast and Midwest, and "the party nominates a candidate who may or
may not be inclined to consider Western issues."
Being inclined to campaign in the West is another matter as well.
Cities are spread out, there's no region-wide media and there's a
lot of ground to cover.
"Initially you might consider it a barrier," agreed Patterson.
"The cost of organization would be so high in these states. What
mitigates that is that the population is growing and it will become,
over time, more and more efficient to campaign here."
What a unified western primary probably won't do is attract a
more representative swath of voters, said Sven Wilson, who directs
the Master of Public Policy Program at BYU.
Exit poll data suggests that primary voters tend to be different
from those who vote in a general election.
"They are more educated. They tend to be more on the extreme on
the right or the left," Wilson said.
A primary that matters more in the selection process could
encourage more people to participate, since people would feel their
votes counted more. That would probably happen -- but the higher
turnout would mostly bring out more of the hard-core partisans,
Wilson said.
"In terms of increasing representativeness, we're skeptical," he
said. "You'd really have to push it high above what anybody thinks
is likely.
"But it could have other impacts. For instance, it might get
candidates more interested."
Wilson, fellow BYU professor Quin Monson and graduate student
Steve Collins are among the speakers at today's symposium.
The fact that Nevada's vote has been moved to an earlier date
probably won't hurt the western primary effort, Kemmis said.
"It could be a good thing to have an interior western state with
that very early caucus," he said.
"If it's known that there is then going to be another date, early
in February, when several Rocky Mountain states would be holding
their primaries or caucuses, that would heighten the likelihood that
candidates in Nevada would be aware of being in the
West."
This story appeared in The Daily Herald on page D1.